Key Players to Watch

TUA TAGOVAILOA
Dolphins Logo

Tua Tagovailoa

QB • Miami Dolphins

Passing leader with potential for big plays but coming off a 2-INT performance.

68.2%
COMP %
587
YDS
4:3
TD:INT
JOSH ALLEN
Bills Logo

Josh Allen

QB • Buffalo Bills

Dual-threat QB with over 300 total yards in both games this season.

71.4%
COMP %
610
YDS
5:1
TD:INT
De'VON ACHANE
Dolphins Logo

De'Von Achane

RB • Miami Dolphins

Speed back who could be limited by Buffalo's run defense (allowing 3.2 YPC).

5.4
YPC
187
YDS
2
TD
KHALIL SHAKIR
Bills Logo

Khalil Shakir

WR • Buffalo Bills

Emerging receiver who creates matchup problems for secondaries.

12
REC
184
YDS
1
TD

Game Insights & Analysis

Bills' Home Advantage

Buffalo is 8-2 in their last 10 Thursday home games. The crowd noise at Highmark Stadium could disrupt Miami's no-huddle offense.

Weather Impact

Forecast calls for cool temperatures (around 55°F) with possible rain, which favors Buffalo's physical style over Miami's speed-based attack.

Historical Dominance

Bills have won 5 straight against Miami and 13 of the last 14 matchups. Josh Allen owns Miami with 12 TD passes and 3 INTs in last 4 starts.

Turnover Battle

Buffalo's defense has forced 4 turnovers early this season, while Miami's offense has been inconsistent with ball security.

Overall Outlook

Models give Buffalo a 68% win probability. Expect a close first half, but Buffalo pulls away late. Total points line is 48.5, leaning OVER due to both teams' explosive potential.

Same-Game Parlay Picks

A same-game parlay combines bets from this single matchup for higher payout potential. These legs correlate well for a Bills-favored game.

Leg 1: Bills -6.5

The spread moved from -5.5 to -6.5 after sharp money on Buffalo. Bills covered in 7 of their last 10 home games.

-110
Implied Probability: 52%

Leg 2: Allen Over 275.5 Passing Yards

Allen has cleared 275 yards in both 2025 games (298 and 312), averaging 285 against Miami historically.

-115
Implied Probability: 53.5%

Leg 3: Game Total Over 48.5

Both teams rank top-8 in scoring pace. Last 3 head-to-heads went OVER, and TNF games average 50.2 points.

-110
Implied Probability: 52%

Parlay Summary

Combined Odds: Approximately +650 to +800

Combined Probability: ~12-15%

Why This Parlay? These legs correlate well: A Bills win by 7+ often involves Allen airing it out, pushing the total over.

Matchup History

Recent Meetings

December 17, 2024

Buffalo Bills 31 - 10 Miami Dolphins

Bills win
October 1, 2024

Buffalo Bills 38 - 24 Miami Dolphins

Bills win
December 18, 2023

Buffalo Bills 32 - 6 Miami Dolphins

Bills win
October 1, 2023

Buffalo Bills 48 - 20 Miami Dolphins

Bills win
December 18, 2022

Buffalo Bills 32 - 29 Miami Dolphins

Bills win

Series Summary

Overall Record: Bills lead 63-56-1

Current Streak: Bills have won 5 straight

Last Dolphins Win: September 24, 2022 (21-19)